Mesoscale comparison of simulated and observed winds during Sandy’s landfall on New Jersey
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This map shows the stations included in the analyses. Dots are surface observations and the 4 triangles are profile observations. NHC’s best track for Sandy is shown as the red line. Surface observations are sampled every 5 minutes for most stations.
The blue bars are 36-hour average mesonet observed wind speeds during Sandy, averaged over many sites. The red bars are similar averages, but for WRF 10 meter wind speeds at the station locations. Pale bars are all sites and brighter ones are subsets of sites.
Station is Cream Ridge in central New Jersey. Mesonet observations are plotted in green and WRF 10 meter winds for station location are plotted in black. Landfall time is 00Z at the beginning of the third day.
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Color range emphasizes overland wind speed range.
This shows the mesonet’s version of the warm and moist intrusion and the following cooler and drier intrusion, about 4 hours later. Images are air temperature and lines are streamlines with line colors denoting wind speed along the streamlines.
This shows WRF’s version of the warm, moist and cooler, drier intrusions. WRF 2 meter potential temperature is the image and the iso-surface encloses higher-concentration water vapor near the ground. This shows the etching of warm, moist air from the east and from above between 21Z and 23Z.
The 3D surface encloses 34 m/s wind speeds. Color indicates height, where red and orange are below 1 km and blue and magenta are above 5 km. Three airstream are evident: The warm conveyor belt, the cold conveyor belt, and the descending dry air intrusion.
At 22Z, the arc of yellow and red in the southwest quadrant along the Delaware Bay is deep convection ahead of the southwest-ward moving warm front and the broad area of blue and scattered green to its northeast is shallow precipitation within the warm, moist air.
At 21Z, WRF's vertical velocity field is swept upward in increments of 500 meter elevation, from 500 meters above ground to 3500 meters above ground. Red is upward vertical velocity and blue is downward.
At 22Z, the arc of yellow, red and green in the southwest quadrant is deep convection ahead of the southwest-ward moving warm front and the broad area of blue and scattered green to its northeast is shallow precipitation within the warm, moist air.
Green is velocity toward the radar and red is away from it. Wind speed structures are apparent similar to what we would expect from roll vortices.
Schiavone, James A., Independent Scientist, Peter Johnsen, Cray Inc., David A. Robinson and Mathieu Gerbush, Rutgers University, and Alan Norton, National Center for Atmospheric Research